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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd