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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still