🔗 Share this article

Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims the island as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was likely the maritime patrol, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards the island.